Re: trendline gaussian
Dave,
Quote from Dave.Kimble@Liz
"if we knew how much oil there was in a given reserve we could then ..."
Ah - if only.
OK, we may not know how much oil there is in a given reserve, or more accurately, how much recoverable oil there is but do we have any data of expected recovery and actual recovery for fiields that are closed or closing? Then you may be able to start looking at what the likely recoverable oil is from the changing estimates of recoverable oil over time vs final recoverable oil. I appreciate that this would be sketchy, but it might improve the estimate of total recoverable oil.
Your comments on how every one fails to report the reserves accurately is quite worrying and one I am becoming more aware of.
Quote from Dave.Kimble@Liz
One of the ways the industry denounces ASPO's pessimistic figures is to say "look - the production rates don't fit gaussian curves" and they are sort of right apart from the US data set.
As I have said before, the use of these curves must be justified, and a good method for that is to make the curve not just fit the production points but the estimated total reserves. I suspect then that it will not be a Gaussian but some other form, such as Gamma.
Quote from Dave.Kimble@Liz
You might like to go through a few countries and see what you think is the best way to analyse them. OPEC/Arab countries in particular cut production for political reasons during the 'Oil Shocks' so they are nothing like gaussians
Would love to do this sort of analysis, but not sure my boss would approve!
Quote from Dave.Kimble@Liz
...so if ASPO is right and if production is gaussian (symmetrical about the peak)...
This is perhaps the biggest sticking point and reason I would want to reject the Gauusian approach. It may have been a good first estimate, but surely logic says that there will be a long tail into teh future. Remember, it is easy to repeat analysis to a given methodology in an attept to prove or disprove something, but the real innovation is to prove or disprove something with a more accurate theorey/methodology. You could be the one who changes the way the industry does this type of analysis!
As the cost of recovery of oil goes up and the energy used to recover goes up then oil will only be recovered for non-fuel reasons (such as production of other chemicals and plastics). Therefore the rate of production will decrease for a different reason than now. This assumes that an alternative form of energy is used to power our transport system and, to a lesser extent, electricity generation.
Quote from Dave.Kimble@Liz
...On the downslope of production, recession and oil wars are inevitable.
A worrying prospect, but perhaps this is the time to invest in alternative energy and technologies....
Dave